文章基于时间序列分析方法,提出及时性指数(T)、波动性指数(V)和持续性指数(P),并基于三维立体散点图建立计量指标特性识别模型。研究了PLOS网站ALM指标的动态变化特征,分析不同指标不同时间段在论文影响力评价中的作用。以PLOS网站的PLOS使用指标、Scopus引用指标、Twitter讨论指标为例,选择2016年期刊PLOS ONE的前50篇高被引论文为数据样本,进行实证研究。研究发现:PLOS使用指标具有高及时性、低波动性、高持续性的特点,可将学术论文整个生命周期的平均被使用情况作为学术影响力判定指标;Scopus引用指标具有低及时性、高波动性、高持续性的特点,可将学术论文中长期的被引情况作为学术影响力判定指标;Twitter
讨论指标具有低及时性、低波动性、低持续性的特点,可将学术论文首月的讨论情况作为社会影响力判定指标。
This paper proposes three characteristic indexes of the measurement indicator based on the time series analysis method: the Timeliness index(T), Volatility index(V) and Sustainability index(P), and establish a characteristic identification model of measurement indicator based on three-dimensional scatterplot. It is used to study the dynamic change characteristics of ALM, and analyzes the role of different indicators at different time periods in evaluating the impact of paper. Taking the PLOS usage indicator, Scopus cited indicator, and Twitter discussion indicator of the PLOS website as examples, the top 50 highly cited papers of the 2016 journal PLOS ONE were selected as data samples for empirical research. It is found that the PLOS usage indicator has the characteristics of high timeliness, low volatility, and high persistence. The average usage of papers throughout the entire life cycle can be used as an academic indicator. Scopus cited indicator with low timeliness, high volatility, and high persistence feature can be used as a indicator in medium and long-term of academic papers. Twitter discussion indicator have the characteristics of low timeliness, low volatility, and low persistence. The discussion in the first month of academic papers can be considered as a social influence indicator.