[目的/意义]重特大自然灾害舆情是我国应急管理领域的热点议题，厘清重特大自然灾害舆情演化规律是提高灾害舆情治理能力、构建中国特色应急管理体系的必然选择。[方法/过程]基于拉斯韦尔的“5W”传播模型，按照“演化所处环境—由谁引发演化—向谁演化—演化的内容是什么—通过什么渠道演化—演化效果如何”的逻辑关系搭建重特大自然灾害舆情演化的要素架构。以舆情演化生命周期为基础，挖掘各构成要素之间的复杂交互关系，刻画出重特大自然灾害舆情演化的运行轨迹。[结果/结论]通过剖析重特大自然灾害舆情演化动态过程中各要素的耦合关系，揭示影响构成要素交互作用的动力因素，从而全面掌握重特大自然灾害舆情演化的机理。

[Purpose/significance]The public opinion of serious natural disasters is a hot topic in the field of emergency management in China. To clarify the evolution law of the public opinion of serious natural disasters is an inevitable choice to improve the ability of disaster public opinion management and build an emergency management system with Chinese characteristics. [Method/process]Based on Laswell's "5W" communication model, according to the logical relationship of "the environment where evolution is located - who causes evolution- to whom evolution - what is the content of evolution - through what channels - how evolution effect", an element framework of public opinion evolution of serious natural disasters is built. Based on the life cycle of public opinion evolution, the complex interaction between various elements is explored, and the operation track of public opinion evolution of serious natural disasters is depicted. [Result/conclusion]By analyzing the coupling relationship of various elements in the dynamic process of public opinion evolution of serious natural disasters, the dynamic factors influencing the interaction of constituent elements are revealed, so as to fully grasp the evolution mechanism of public opinion of serious natural disasters.