专题研究

基于热点主题识别的突发事件次生衍生事件探测

展开
  • (武汉大学信息资源研究中心 湖北 430072; 武汉大学信息管理学院 湖北 430072)(北京大学信息管理系 北京 100871)
安璐,女,1979年生,武汉大学信息资源研究中心,武汉大学信息管理学院教授。 李倩,女,1990年生,北京大学信息管理系硕士研究生。

网络出版日期: 2020-11-12

基金资助

本文系教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“提高反恐怖主义情报信息工作能力对策研究”(项目编号:17JZD034)、国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目“信息资源管理”(批准号:71921002)和国家自然科学基金重大课题“国家安全大数据综合信息集成与分析方法”(批准号:71790612)的研究成果之一。

A Probe into Secondary Derived Events of Emergencies Based on Hot Topic Recognition

Expand
  • (Center for Studies of Information Resources, Wuhan University, Hubei,430072;School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430072) (Department of Information Management, Peking University, Beijing, 100871)

Online published: 2020-11-12

摘要

[目的/意义]突发事件的发展演化可能引发一系列次生衍生事件,扩大事件本身的作用幅度和影响范围,故而研究突发事件次生衍生事件的探测问题具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。[方法/过程]本文获取了133 947条2018年长春长生疫苗事件相关微博数据,并基于危机传播四阶段理论对该事件各生命周期阶段的微博数据提取微博文本的特征词,通过word2vec模型和K-means聚类算法提取突发事件各生命周期微博文本的主题,再基于H指数计算各主题的影响力,筛选得到该突发事件的热点主题,并构建突发事件次生衍生事件的判定规则,探测其次生衍生事件。[结果/结论]研究结果表明,长春长生疫苗事件共涉及个人、企业和政府层面共17个次生衍生事件。构建突发事件次生衍生事件的判定规则与探测方法,丰富了突发事件管理的理论与方法,有助于及时掌握突发事件次生衍生事件的发生机理,提高突发事件的风险应对能力。

本文引用格式

安璐, 李倩 . 基于热点主题识别的突发事件次生衍生事件探测[J]. 情报资料工作, 2020 , 41(6) : 26 -35 . DOI: 10.12154/j.qbzlgz.2020.06.004

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] A single emergency may further develop and trigger a series of secondary and derived events, which may expand the scope and impact of the event. Thus, it is of great significance to study the detection of the secondary and derived events of emergencies. [Method/process]In this study, we obtained 133 947 microblog entries related to the Changchun Changsheng vaccine event in 2018, and extracted the feature words of the microblog text at each life cycle stage of the event based on the four-stage theory of crisis communication. The word2vec and Kmeans clustering algorithm was used to identify the topics of the microblog text at each life cycle stage of the event. The influence of each topic was calculated based on the H-index to reveal the salient topics. The determination rules for the secondary and derived events were also constructed to detect those events. [Result/conclusion]The results of this study indicate that there are 17 secondary and derived events in the Changchun Changsheng vaccine event. This study
constructs the determination rules and methods of identifying secondary and derivative events, which can enrich the theory and method of emergency management. It can help grasp the occurrence mechanism of secondary and derived events of emergencies, and improve the ability of emergency response.
文章导航

/