[目的/意义]对情报预测加以质疑与反思，有助于认识情报预测的特征和局限性，推动情报预测活动的正常开展。[方法/过程]首先分析情报预测的内在逻辑和理论预设，然后揭示其理论基础，并对这些理论基础的合理性提出疑问，最后提出情报预测的可行性路径。[结果/结论]情报预测的内在逻辑是“数往知来”，即由已知推导未知，根据事物的过去、现在推测未来。这种内在逻辑存在一个理论预设，即事物发展受社会规律的支配，利用有关事物过去、现在的信息可发掘社会规律，然后基于规律就能推断事物的未来。然而，为情报预测的内在逻辑和理论预设提供支持的理论基础——未来因果论和连续性原理，存在明显的逻辑缺陷，不具有逻辑自洽性。以“先知”为目的，以征兆监测为手段，以情报评估为基本内容，是当前情报预测的可行性路径。

[Purpose/significance] This paper critically questions and reflects on information forecasting, aiming to deepen the understanding of its characteristics and limitations and promote its sound development. [Method/process]The paper first analyzes the internal logic and theoretical presuppositions of information forecasting, examines its theo⁃retical foundations and questions the rationality of these foundations, and finally proposes the feasible approaches of in⁃formation forecasting. [Result/conclusion] The internal logic of information forecasting is "predicting events based on historical patterns", i.e., inferring the unknown from the known and speculating about the future based on the past and present states of things. This internal logic relies on a fundamental theoretical presupposition: the development of things is governed by social laws, which can be identified through analyzing information about their past and present states, and thus the future of things can be inferred from these laws. However, the theoretical foundations supporting the
internal logic and theoretical presuppositions of information forecasting—namely, the theory of future causality and the principle of continuity—both contain obvious logical flaws and lack internal logical consistency. Therefore, information forecasting should be conducted with foreknowledge as its purpose, indicator monitoring as its method, and information assessment as its core content.