[目的/意义]为实现单篇科学论文原始创新影响力的定量测量与早期预测，提出一种原始创新影响力测量与预测方法。[方法/过程]围绕原创开辟性、原创突破性与原创引领性三类核心特征，从知识扩散视角构建兼顾长、短期时间尺度的原始创新影响力测量指标框架，并在此基础上提出融合领域特征知识语义信息和期刊层级特征的影响力预测方法，以阿秒科学领域论文为样本开展实证分析。[结果/结论]所构建的测量框架能够区分高原始创新影响力论文与高被引论文，避免将影响力简单等同于引用累积；所提出的预测方法可用于新发表论文潜在原始创新影响力的相对判断，为高原始创新成果的早期发现提供量化依据。

[Purpose/significance] To achieve the quantitative measurement and early-stage prediction of the original innovation impact of individual scientific papers, this study proposes a method for measuring and predicting original innovation impact. [Method/process] Centered on three core characteristics—original pioneering, original breakthrough, and original leadership—this study constructs a measurement framework for original innovation impact from the perspective of knowledge diffusion, incorporating both short-term and long-term temporal dimensions. On this basis, a prediction method is further developed by integrating semantic information from domain-specific knowledge and
journal-level characteristics. An empirical analysis is conducted using publications in the field of attosecond science
as the research sample. [Result/conclusion] The proposed measurement framework can distinguish papers with high
original innovation impact from highly cited papers, avoiding the simple conflation of impact with citation accumulation. The proposed prediction method can be used for the relative assessment of the potential original innovation impact of newly published papers, providing a quantitative basis for the early identification of research outputs with high original innovation impact.