An Emerging Technology Foresight Framework Based on Graph Learning from the Perspective of Weak Signals

  • Shi Kaiwen ,
  • Wang Xiaoguang ,
  • Wang Hongyu ,
  • Zheng Yang ,
  • Huang Han
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  • (1School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Hubei, 430072;2School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Hubei, 430070;3Institute of Digital Governance and Management Decision Innovation, Wuhan University of Technology, Hubei,430070;4Research Center for Data Science and Intelligent Decision Making, Wuhan University of Technology, Hubei, 430070)

Online published: 2026-09-20

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] Cultivating new quality productive forces presents new demands for accurately assessing the development trends of sci-tech innovation. It is an important tool for sci-tech development planning to pool
massive sci-tech information resources, deeply track the weak phenomena and interactions characterized in the early
stage of sci-tech innovation, and foresee the trends of emerging technologies evolving to frontier or core technologies.[Method/process] This study conducted a literature review on technology foresight analysis, explored key challenges in emerging technology foresight from the perspectives of evolutionary mechanisms and analytical methodologies, and constructed a graph learning-based emerging technology foresight framework from the weak signal perspective by integrating rules for judging the evolutionary stages of emerging technologies with representation learning from dynamic multiplex knowledge networks. [Result/conclusion] This framework employs a full-cycle analysis and revelation of evolutionary features and representational factors to deeply dissect the evolution mechanisms of emerging technologies.It proposes detailed steps for tracking and modeling the diverse evolutionary features of emerging technologies using dynamic multiplex knowledge networks, holding significant theoretical and practical implications for the field of sci-tech policy and management.

Cite this article

Shi Kaiwen , Wang Xiaoguang , Wang Hongyu , Zheng Yang , Huang Han . An Emerging Technology Foresight Framework Based on Graph Learning from the Perspective of Weak Signals[J]. Information and Documentation Services, 2026 , 47(5) : 94 -102 . DOI: 10.12154/j.qbzlgz.2026.05.010

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