理论探讨

微博中谣言信息与辟谣信息综合影响力对比研究*

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  • (中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 北京 100190)
马宁,女,1986年生,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院助理研究员。 刘怡君,女,1978年生,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院研究员。

网络出版日期: 2020-05-13

基金资助

本文系国家自然科学基金项目“突发事件舆情风险的识别、预测与应对研究”(批准号:71840015)、“基于多种网络模型的舆论领袖识别及其传播影响力仿真研究”(批准号:71503246)和“公共政策发布的网络舆情预警建模与应对策略研究”(批准号:71573247)的研究成果之一。

Comparative Research on the Comprehensive Influence of Rumor Information and Refute Rumor Information in Weibo

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  • (Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,100190)

Online published: 2020-05-13

摘要

[目的/意义]本文将微博中传播的“谣言信息”和与其对应的“辟谣信息”视作研究对象,应用主成分分析法对其综合影响力进行对比分析,以期可以精准预测谣言和辟谣信息的综合传播影响力。[方法/过程]首先构建谣言和辟谣信息综合影响力评价体系,包括人物、话题和网络三大维度;然后,基于大量真实数据进行主成分分析,得到谣言和辟谣信息综合影响力模型;最后,应用以上模型对具体舆情案例的谣言和辟谣信息影响力进行度量。[结果/结论]结合具体实例的真实演化结果,进一步验证了模型的有效性。

本文引用格式

马宁, 刘怡君 . 微博中谣言信息与辟谣信息综合影响力对比研究*[J]. 情报资料工作, 2020 , 41(3) : 41 -48 . DOI: 10.12154/j.qbzlgz.2020.03.007

Abstract

[Purpose/significance] The paper regards the rumor information and the corresponding dispelling rumor information as a pair of heterogeneous information spreading in microblog, and uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to study comprehensive influence of the rumour and counter-rumour. [Method/process] First, constructing the evaluation index system of comprehensive influence of the rumour and counter-rumour, including figure dimensions, subject dimension and network dimension; Then, conducting the principal component analysis based on the real rumour and counter-rumour information data of microblog, separately getting the six principal components of comprehensive influence of the rumour and counter-rumour, and putting forward comprehensive influence model on the basis of the above. [Result/conclusion] The model is used to measure the influence of rumors and counter-rumour of specific public opinion case, and the validity of the model is verified by combining the real evolution results of the case.
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