[目的/意义]探索应急情报服务的关键影响因素,厘清因素之间的层级关系和关联路径,以期为提升政府应急管理效能提供理论参考和实践指导。[方法/过程]以WSR系统方法论为基础,从物理、事理和人理三个维度构建应急情报服务影响因素指标体系,通过模糊DANP方法解析各影响因素的相互关系及相对重要程度,识别出应急情报服务的关键影响因素,并利用ISM模型对影响因素进行层级划分和关联路径分析。[结果/结论]应急情报服务是表层、浅层、中层和根源因素共同作用的结果。其中,信息基础设施、安全保障机制、数字技术工具和政策法规体系是最根本的因素,数据规范体系、参与意愿、需求偏好、心理韧性和风险感知是最直接的因素。
[Purpose/significance] This research investigates the criticalfactors influencing emergency intelligence services to clarify their hierarchical structure and interrelated pathways. The ultimate goal is to offer both a theoretical foundation and actionable guidance for improving the efficacy of government emergency management. [Method/process] Based on the methodology of the WSR system, an index framework for the influencing factors of emergency intelligence services has been developed, encompassing three dimensions: Wuli, Shili, and Renli. Through the application of the fuzzy DANP methodology, this study elucidates the complex interrelationships and hierarchical significance among various influencing factors, ultimately pinpointing the key determinants in emergency intelligence service systems. Using the ISM framework, the influencing factors are stratified into a hierarchical structure, followed by a path-dependent correlation analysis to uncover their causal interlinkages. [Result/conclusion] The effectiveness of emergency intelligence services stems from the dynamic interaction of four hierarchical dimensions: surface phenomena, shallow-layer factors, mid-level systems, and foundational determinants. Among them, identifies information infrastructure, security mechanisms, digital technologies, and policy-regulatory frameworks as foundational determinants, whereas data standardization systems,participation willingness, demand preferences, psychological resilience, and risk perception constitute proximal influencing factors.